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Prediction for CME (2024-11-25T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-25T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35320/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and possibly to the SE in STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap. The CME is likely associated with the M1.9 flare from AR3091 as seen from SDO/AIA 131 and associated dimming in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 20:33Z. The dimming and associated EUV wave is seen moving out in all directions, most notably seen to the north, east, and south of the source location. This CME event overlaps with CMEs visible to the southwest which began around 2024-11-25T18:00Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-29T02:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-28T06:06Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-26 00:31
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-25 21:24
 - Radial speed: 935.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S23E02
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 686.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-11-28 06:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.70 hours)
Lead Time: 63.15 hour(s)
Difference: 20.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-11-26T11:06Z
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